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A common claim in the Brexit debate is that the European Union is desperate to get the UK back in, and that the real reason is money. The numbers tell a more mixed story.
AN EU BUDGET THAT GREW WITHOUT THE UK
The UK left the EU in February 2020, and the EU’s 2021-2027 long-term budget was built without it. Far from shrinking, annual budgets have kept rising.
In June 2026 the European Commission proposed a 2027 budget of €199.9 billion in commitments and €212 billion in payments, around 7% more than 2026. Member states, through the Council, wanted it trimmed to €191.88 billion in commitments, while the European Parliament voted for €194 billion. Final negotiations are under way and should conclude in November 2026.
Whatever the final figure, the EU is setting budgets of roughly €200 billion a year with 27 members. The remaining countries have absorbed the loss of the UK’s old net contribution.
THE DIVORCE BILL: WHAT THE UK HAS PAID AND WHAT IT STILL OWES
Leaving did not end the UK’s payments straight away. Under the Withdrawal Agreement, the UK agreed to settle obligations built up while it was a member, including its share of projects already committed and EU staff pensions.
According to HM Treasury’s latest EU Finances Statement, published in March 2026:
– Total net value of the settlement: £30.9 billion
– Paid up to the end of December 2025: £25.7 billion
– Still outstanding (forecast): £5.3 billion
So the UK has paid about 83% of the bill. Most of the remainder falls in the next few years, but some pension-related payments are expected to continue into the 2060s.
These payments were designed so that no EU country would pay more or receive less because of Brexit. They softened the blow in the early years, but they are winding down.
MONEY THE UK PAYS BY CHOICE
Separately, the UK pays to take part in some EU programmes as an outside country, most notably the Horizon Europe research programme and the Copernicus earth-observation programme. The UK government has allocated £2.1 billion for this in the current financial year. Much of this flows back to UK universities and businesses as grants, so it is closer to buying a service than funding the EU.
THE CASE THAT IT IS ABOUT MONEY
Those who say the EU wants UK cash have some evidence to point to. The EU has signalled it wants the UK to pay into its budget in return for closer ties, and money has caused friction in talks about UK involvement in the EU’s €150 billion SAFE defence fund. The budget is also under pressure from support for Ukraine and repayments on pandemic-era borrowing, and member states have resisted paying more themselves.
THE CASE THAT IT IS NOT
On the other side, the EU has managed its finances for six years without the UK as a member and is still growing its budget. There is no route for the EU to bring the UK back; rejoining would require a UK decision, a fresh application and unanimous approval from all 27 members, and the UK’s old rebate would almost certainly be gone. When the EU asks for money today, it is for specific programmes the UK chooses to join, which is ordinary deal-making rather than a rescue.
THE VERDICT
The EU clearly wants the UK to pay its way in the programmes it takes part in. But the claim that it is chasing UK membership for the funds alone is hard to sustain. The EU budget has grown without Britain, the divorce bill is largely paid, and defence, security and trade are at least as important as cash in shaping the relationship today.
